When two clubs sit level on points going into a direct meeting, the word 'six-pointer' gets thrown around a lot. Today it actually fits. Manchester United and Aston Villa arrive at Old Trafford this Sunday afternoon with 51 points apiece, United holding a six-goal advantage in goal difference. Win it and you pull three points clear of your direct rival. Lose it and the gap swings the other way. The stakes don't get much more straightforward than this.

For Michael Carrick, the timing feels significant. Since taking interim charge, he has won six of eight league games and guided United through a seven-match unbeaten run — one that includes wins over the sides above them in the table. Old Trafford has not lost a Premier League fixture in eight home matches. Last week's 2-1 defeat to Newcastle was a bump, not a collapse, and three points today would firmly draw a line under it.

The biggest individual story of Carrick's tenure has been Benjamin Sesko. The Slovenian barely featured under the previous manager but has responded to renewed trust with seven goals in his last ten appearances across all competitions, netting four times in his last six despite often being used as a substitute. He is expected to lead the line today — and Villa's centre-backs will know exactly what that means. Sesko is most dangerous running the channels and linking with runners from deep; it is precisely how United have been building attacks in recent weeks.

Bryan Mbeumo provides the other cutting edge. Operating inside from a wide position and combining with Matheus Cunha and Bruno Fernandes in those pockets between the lines, he has been one of United's most consistent threats since the turn of the year. Only three clubs in the Premier League have scored more than United's 51 goals this season, and at Old Trafford they are averaging nearly two per game.

Villa's problems are real

Unai Emery's side are not the force they were earlier in the campaign. One win in their last six league games, three defeats, and a Europa League trip to Lille to deal with in midweek — the Villans arrive in Manchester carrying baggage. Youri Tielemans, the engine room of Villa's midfield, is doubtful. John McGinn, whose intensity gives Villa's pressing its teeth, is also uncertain to start. Lose both and you strip away the two players most responsible for making Villa difficult to play through.

Morgan Rogers will still be a threat — his movement between the lines is genuinely tricky to track — and Ollie Watkins will always find a way to be involved. But without Tielemans and McGinn fit and functioning, the platform beneath them is considerably shakier than it was when Villa beat United in the reverse fixture.

Likely lineups

United: Lammens; Mazraoui, Yoro, Maguire, Shaw; Casemiro, Mainoo; Mbeumo, Fernandes, Cunha; Sesko.

Villa: Martínez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Maatsen; Onana, Douglas Luiz; Bailey, Rogers, Buendía; Watkins.

The verdict

United's home form, Sesko's current run of goals, and Villa's mounting injury issues all point in the same direction. Carrick has already beaten the top two — a Villa side missing key players and low on confidence feels well within reach. Both teams have scored in nearly three-quarters of United's league games this season. The most likely outcome: United 2-1 Aston Villa, with Sesko and Mbeumo the names on the scoresheet.